WASHINGTON — Republican groups are now raining money down on the Texas Senate race. After months of holding out, the GOP has committed tens of millions of dollars to support Attorney General Ken Paxton in his tight race against Democratic State Rep. James Talarico.
After weeks of watching Talarico flood the Texas airwaves, the GOP money machine is kicking into high gear to help the Republican in the race, Paxton.
“I’ll be coming back to Texas because we have to elect Ken Paxton. We have to,” said President Donald Trump at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas last week. “If I have to, I’ll come back twice or three times. You’ll say, ‘Get this guy out of here!’”
President Trump’s super PAC announced it is spending $10 million on TV time. The Senate Leadership Fund, an arm of Senate Republican leadership, has contributed at least $43 million. The America PAC, which is connected to billionaire Elon Musk, has given Paxton at least $250,000.
One Republican strategist said it shows the party is taking this race seriously.
“Public polling and internal polling both show that Attorney General Paxton is in a very tight race, and that he could actually lose,” said Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser. “I do think it is doubtful that Texas will go for the Democrats this year. But Republicans are investing to make sure that doesn’t happen.”
According to AdImpact, Republican-aligned groups have reserved $47.2 million in future advertisements as of Sept. 15, compared to Democrats’ $6.4 million.
The September surge comes after Republicans spent much of the summer on the sidelines.
“The Paxton campaign and his allies have two things they need to do. Number one, define James Talarico as too far to the left for Texas. I think they have to drive that point home. They’ve done some of that already, but the money will help them reach a wider audience, especially independent voters, swing voters,” Steinhauser said. “The other thing the Paxton campaign has to do is define Ken Paxton in a new way. They have to talk about his record as Attorney General.”
Talarico’s campaign has out-raised Paxton’s. The latest filings show Talarico has $21.5 million in the bank, compared to $1.8 million for Paxton.
“He wanted to define himself before the Republicans could define him. So he’s laid the groundwork over the summer for coming across as a likable, normal guy,” said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. “I think there was a lot of utility for Talarico in having that money to be up on the air with ads emphasizing his likability.”
With the infusion of Republican money less than two months before Election Day, a big question now is whether the spending will move the needle.
Wilson said there is only a small group of voters undecided between the two candidates.
“What we have seen in recent campaigns, though, is that advertising in general has diminishing returns,” Wilson said. “Just because you have a lot of money to spend on either side, Republican or Democratic, doesn’t mean that you’ll necessarily win the seat.”
As Election Day draws near, the battle is no longer just who can raise the most money, but also who can turn out the vote.
