A Severe Weather Outbreak Is Forecast In the Plains With Strong Tornadoes Possible From Texas To The Midwest—
Who Could See EF2 Tornadoes, Very Large Hail
A severe weather outbreak, including the potential for strong tornadoes, is forecast Friday from Texas to parts of the Midwest, part of a multi-day siege of thunderstorms also with hail, damaging winds and flooding rain.
At least three tornadoes were either sighted or detected by radar in the eastern Texas Panhandle, northwest Oklahoma and southern Kansas late Thursday night.
Damage was reported by storm spotters near Helena, Medford and Orienta, Oklahoma. Hail up to the size of hen eggs — 2.25 inches in diameter — was reported in Hall County, Texas.
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(MORE: Severe Weather Outbreak Maps Tracker)
Preliminary severe weather reports from Thursday night. The number of tornado reports doesn’t necessarily correspond to the number of actual tornadoes.
(Data: NOAA/NWS/SPC)
Severe Threat Timing
Friday
As you can see in the map below, a large swath of the nation’s mid-section has at least a chance of severe thunderstorms through Friday night.
According to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, parts of eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, western Missouri and western Arkansas have the highest chance of at least a few stronger (EF2+) tornadoes.
However, scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible from parts of central Texas to the western Great Lakes, as far north as Wisconsin and Michigan.
Cities: Austin, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Omaha, Des Moines, St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee
(MORE: SPC Is Issuing New Intensity Forecasts)
This Weekend
The story doesn’t end there.
Some strong to severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail are possible Saturday from the Ohio Valley and Appalachians to eastern and central Texas.
Fortunately, few, if any, severe storms are forecast for Sunday.
Next Week
Additional strong to severe storms are expected early to mid-next week when a strong cold front slices into the central and eastern U.S. as a strong upper-level low-pressure system over northern Mexico finally gets kicked into the Plains.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted another threat of severe storms Tuesday, including some of the same areas that will be hit this week in the Plains.
And that severe threat is likely to last into Wednesday from parts of the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley into the East.
(MAPS: 7-Day US Rain, Thunderstorm Forecast)
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates to this forecast.
In the meantime, make sure you are prepared before severe weather threatens your area.
Have multiple ways of receiving official National Weather Service watches and warnings, including ways to wake you up at night. Know where the safest place is to take shelter where you live and do so immediately when receiving a warning.
How Much Rain?
We’ve already seen flash flooding this week in parts of the Ohio Valley and Plains. Water rescues were needed on flooded roads on the south side of the Dallas metro Wednesday. At least several inches of water impacted some homes and businesses in Millville, Ohio, north of Cincinnati, Wednesday. Several buildings were flooded in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, early Thursday.
More locally heavy rainfall is likely with these multiple rounds of thunderstorms through the middle of next week. Some areas from the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley may pick up an additional 3 inches or more of rain.
That could lead to additional flash flooding, particularly from the eastern half of Texas into eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana.
Soaking A Drought
These parts of the country are very much in need of rainfall. Drought persists across much of the South, and the reason is actually fairly straightforward.
Current areas of drought as of Feb. 26, 2026.
(Data: US Drought Monitor)
We have been under a La Niña this winter, which causes some significant impacts to our weather.
(MORE: La Niña Is Fading)
A La Niña occurs when trade winds moving from east to west across the equator over the Pacific Ocean ramp up, pushing warm water to the Western Pacific. This forces cooler water to rise to the surface across the eastern region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
A typical La Niña Pattern
This simple change has a drastic impact on the weather around the world and is amplified in the winter.
In a typical La Niña winter, the jet stream is typically forced farther north, leaving the South warmer and drier. That pattern sends most of the precipitation and cooler temperatures to the north.
Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.
